Republican Shadow Campaign for 2020 Takes Shape as Trump Doubts Grow

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Vice President Mike Pence appears to be cementing his status as President Trump’s heir apparent, promoting himself as the conduit between Republican donors and the administration.CreditEric Thayer for The New York Times

WASHINGTON — Senators Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse have already been to Iowa this year, Gov. John Kasich is eyeing a return visit to New Hampshire, and Mike Pence’s schedule is so full of political events that Republicans joke that he is acting more like a second-term vice president hoping to clear the field than a No. 2 sworn in a little over six months ago.

President Trump’s first term is ostensibly just warming up, but luminaries in his own party have begun what amounts to a shadow campaign for 2020 — as if the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue weren’t involved.

The would-be candidates are cultivating some of the party’s most prominent donors, courting conservative interest groups and carefully enhancing their profiles. Mr. Trump has given no indication that he will decline to seek a second term.

But the sheer disarray surrounding this presidency — the intensifying investigation by the special counsel Robert S. Mueller III and the plain uncertainty about what Mr. Trump will do in the next week, let alone in the next election — have prompted Republican officeholders to take political steps unheard-of so soon into a new administration.

Asked about those Republicans who seem to be eyeing 2020, a White House spokeswoman, Lindsay Walters, fired a warning shot: “The president is as strong as he’s ever been in Iowa, and every potentially ambitious Republican knows that.”

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But in interviews with more than 75 Republicans at every level of the party, elected officials, donors and strategists expressed widespread uncertainty about whether Mr. Trump would be on the ballot in 2020 and little doubt that others in the party are engaged in barely veiled contingency planning.

“They see weakness in this president,” said Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona. “Look, it’s not a nice business we’re in.”

Mr. Trump changed the rules of intraparty politics last year when he took down some of the leading lights of the Republican Party to seize the nomination. Now a handful of hopefuls are quietly discarding traditions that would have dictated, for instance, the respectful abstention from speaking at Republican dinners in the states that kick off the presidential nomination process.

In most cases, the shadow candidates and their operatives have signaled that they are preparing only in case Mr. Trump is not available in 2020. Most significant, multiple advisers to Mr. Pence have already intimated to party donors that he would plan to run if Mr. Trump did not.

Mr. Kasich has been more defiant: The Ohio governor, who ran unsuccessfully in 2016, has declined to rule out a 2020 campaign in multiple television interviews, and has indicated to associates that he may run again, even if Mr. Trump seeks another term.

Mr. Kasich, who was a sharp critic of the Republicans’ failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act with deep Medicaid cuts, intends to step up his advocacy by convening a series of policy forums, in Ohio and around the country.

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Gov. John Kasich of Ohio has declined to rule out a 2020 campaign in multiple television interviews.CreditMark Wilson/Getty Images

“He’ll continue to speak out and lead on health care and on national security issues, trade policy, economic expansion and poverty,” John Weaver, a political adviser of Mr. Kasich’s, said.

In the wider world of conservative Trump opponents, William Kristol, editor at large of The Weekly Standard, said he had begun informal conversations about creating a “Committee Not to Renominate the President.”

“We need to take one shot at liberating the Republican Party from Trump, and conservatism from Trumpism,” Mr. Kristol said.

It may get worse, said Jay Bergman, an Illinois petroleum executive and a leading Republican donor. Grievous setbacks in the midterm elections of 2018 could bolster challengers in the party.

“If the Republicans have lost a lot of seats in the Congress and they blame Trump for it, then there are going to be people who emerge who are political opportunists,” Mr. Bergman said.

Mr. Pence has been the pacesetter. Though it is customary for vice presidents to keep a full political calendar, he has gone a step further, creating an independent power base, cementing his status as Mr. Trump’s heir apparent and promoting himself as the main conduit between the Republican donor class and the administration.

The vice president created his own political fund-raising committee, Great America Committee, shrugging off warnings from some high-profile Republicans that it would create speculation about his intentions. The group, set up with help from Jack Oliver, a former fund-raiser for George W. Bush, has overshadowed Mr. Trump’s own primary outside political group, America First Action, even raising more in disclosed donations.

PENCE’S BUSY SCHEDULE

Here are a few of the political events that Vice President Mike Pence has attended:

  • Party-affiliated events:

    He has been the keynote speaker for at least eight Republican events since February.

  • Outside groups:

    He has attended at least eight events since February for politically active groups, including his own group, the Great American PAC.

  • Donor cultivation:

    He was the driving presence behind at least four events in June and July, and hosted private gatherings at his residence earlier this year.

Mr. Pence also installed Nick Ayers, a sharp-elbowed political operative, as his new chief of staff last month — a striking departure from vice presidents’ long history of elevating a government veteran to be their top staff member. Mr. Ayers had worked on many campaigns but never in the federal government.

Some in the party’s establishment wing are remarkably open about their wish that Mr. Pence would be the Republican standard-bearer in 2020, Representative Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania said.

“For some, it is for ideological reasons, and for others it is for stylistic reasons,” Mr. Dent said, complaining of the “exhausting” amount of “instability, chaos and dysfunction” surrounding Mr. Trump.

Mr. Pence has made no overt efforts to separate himself from the beleaguered president. He has kept up his relentless public praise and even in private is careful to bow to the president.

Mr. Pence’s aides, however, have been less restrained in private, according to two people briefed on the conversations. In a June meeting with Al Hubbard, an Indiana Republican who was a top economic official in Mr. Bush’s White House, an aide to the vice president, Marty Obst, said that they wanted to be prepared to run in case there was an opening in 2020 and that Mr. Pence would need Mr. Hubbard’s help, according to a Republican briefed on the meeting. Reached on the phone, Mr. Hubbard declined to comment.

Mr. Ayers has signaled to multiple major Republican donors that Mr. Pence wants to be ready.

Mr. Obst denied that he and Mr. Ayers had made any private insinuations and called suggestions that the vice president was positioning himself for 2020 “beyond ridiculous.”

For his part, Mr. Pence is methodically establishing his own identity and bestowing personal touches on people who could pay dividends in the future. He not only spoke in June at one of the most important yearly events for Iowa Republicans, Senator Joni Ernst’s pig roast, but he also held a separate, more intimate gathering for donors afterward.

When he arrived in Des Moines on Air Force Two, Mr. Pence was greeted by an Iowan who had complained about his experience with the Affordable Care Act — and who happened to be a member of the state Republican central committee.

The vice president has also turned his residence at the Naval Observatory into a hub for relationship building. In June, he opened the mansion to social conservative activists like Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council and representatives of the billionaire kingmakers Charles G. and David H. Koch.

At large gatherings for contributors, Mr. Pence keeps a chair free at each table so he can work his way around the room. At smaller events for some of the party’s biggest donors, he lays on the charm. Last month, Mr. Pence hosted the Kentucky coal barons Kelly and Joe Craft, along with the University of Kentucky men’s basketball coach, John Calipari, for a dinner a few hours after Ms. Craft appeared before the Senate for her hearing as nominee to become ambassador to Canada.

Other Republicans eyeing the White House have taken note.

“They see him moving around, having big donors at the house for dinner,” said Charles R. Black Jr., a veteran of Republican presidential politics. “And they’ve got to try to keep up.”

Mr. Cotton, for example, is planning a two-day, $5,000-per-person fund-raiser in New York next month, ostensibly for Senate Republicans (and his own eventual re-election campaign). The gathering will include a dinner and a series of events at the Harvard Club, featuring figures well known in hawkish foreign policy circles such as Stephen Hadley, Mr. Bush’s national security adviser.

Mr. Cotton, 40, a first-term Arkansas senator, made headlines for going to Iowa last year during the campaign. He was back just after the election for a birthday party in Des Moines for former Gov. Terry E. Branstad and returned in May to give the keynote speech at a county Republican dinner in Council Bluffs.

Mr. Sasse, among the sharpest Senate Republican critics of Mr. Trump, has quietly introduced himself to political donors in language that several Republicans have found highly suggestive, describing himself as an independent-minded conservative who happens to caucus with Republicans in the Senate. Advisers to Mr. Sasse, of Nebraska, have discussed creating an advocacy group to help promote his agenda nationally.

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Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska has been among the sharpest Senate Republican critics of Mr. Trump.CreditTom Williams/CQ Roll Call

He held a private meet-and-greet last month with local Republican leaders in Iowa, where he lamented the plodding pace of Capitol Hill and declined to recant his past criticism of Mr. Trump.

Jennifer Horn, a former chairwoman of the New Hampshire Republican Party who hosted Mr. Sasse in the first primary state last year, said she saw the senator as speaking for conservatives who felt that Republicans in Washington had not been delivering on their promises.

“There are a lot of people in New Hampshire who have developed a lot of respect for him, and I’m one of them,” she said.

James Wegmann, a spokesman for Mr. Sasse, said the only future date that Mr. Sasse had in mind was Nov. 24, 2017, when the University of Iowa meets the University of Nebraska on the football field.

“Huskers-Hawkeyes rematch,” Mr. Wegmann said, “and like every Nebraskan, he’s betting on the side of righteousness.”

Beyond Washington, other up-and-coming Republicans are making moves should there be an opening in 2020. Nikki Haley, the ambassador to the United Nations and a former governor of South Carolina, put her longtime pollster on the payroll, has gotten better acquainted with some of New York’s financiers and carved out a far more muscular foreign policy niche than Mr. Trump.

“She sounds more like me than Trump,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, a hawkish Republican from South Carolina.

#FakeNews? Mike Pence denies 2020 ballot-box plot to bump Trump

Mike Pence has denied a report that he is planning a presidential run in 2020. According to The New York Times, several Republicans are seeking to replace the party’s unpopular public face, Donald Trump.

Estland US-Vize-Präsident Mike Pence in Tallin (Reuters/I. Kalnins)

In a White House statement released Sunday, Mike Pence called a report on his alleged plans to replace US President Donald Trump in 2020 “absurd,” “categorically false,” “disgraceful and offensive.”

The New York Times had detailed apparent Republican efforts to prepare for an aborted Trump presidency, citing the current turmoil around the US chief executive, including investigations into possible links between his 2016 campaign staff and Russia.

On a trip to central and eastern Europe and the Caucasus last week, for example, Pence repeatedly publicly differed from Trump on Russia. The vice president condemned the Kremlin’s presence in Georgia, with which Russia fought a war in 2008, and said ties would not improve until officials in Moscow changed their stance on Ukraine and withdrew support for such countries as Iran, Syria and North Korea.

Last week, Trump reluctantly signed into law a bill for new sanctions against Russia that had overwhelming support in Congress. He said US relations with Russia had fallen to an “all-time” low and blamed lawmakers for it.

Our relationship with Russia is at an all-time & very dangerous low. You can thank Congress, the same people that can’t even give us HCare!

White House counselor Kellyanne Conway also dismissed the report that Republicans would seek to topple their boss, and said Pence would dutifully run alongside Trump once more in 2020.

Watch video01:57

My picture of the week | The Scaramucci moment

‘Political opportunists’

The article suggested that the vice president had become the “pacesetter” among a group of Republican “political opportunists” who had begun preparing to move in should Trump draw blame for any serious losses in 2018’s midterm legislative elections. According to the Times, Pence has created “an independent power base, cementing his status as Mr. Trump’s heir apparent,” and setting up a fundraising body, the Great America Committee, that overshadows the president’s.

The Times reported that Pence had showed his true intentions by appointing the “sharp-elbowed political operative” Nick Ayers – a fresh-faced Republican apparatchik who was once charged with alcohol-related reckless driving – as chief of staff. However, on Twitter, Ayers called the article a “total lie” and “#fakenews.”

.@alexburnsNYT @jmartNYT print total lie in  article. Said I’ve “signaled to multiple donors @VP wants to be ready for 2020″ (cont)

In the past, Trump has reportedly chafed at any suggestion that members of his administration might seek to draw greater attention to themselves. Pence, too, seems to have chafed.

“The allegations in this article are categorically false and represent just the latest attempt by the media to divide this administration,” Pence said in Sunday’s statement. He added that he would focus all his efforts on seeing Trump re-elected: “Any suggestion otherwise is both laughable and absurd.”

mkg/tj (Reuters, AFP, AP)

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McCain Provides a Dramatic Finale on Health Care: Thumb Down

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John McCain Casts Decisive Health Care Vote

Senate leaders react after John McCain, Republican of Arizona, who returned to the Senate this week after receiving a diagnosis of brain cancer, cast the decisive vote to defeat his party’s “skinny repeal” of Obamacare.

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS. .Watch in Times Video »

WASHINGTON — All week long, Senate Democrats had quietly groused that Senator John McCain made a stirring return to the Senate after a brain cancer diagnosis, that he preached the virtues of bipartisanship — and that he then backed a Republican-only push to replace the Affordable Care Act.

But early Friday morning, Mr. McCain, showing little sign of his grave illness, strode onto the Senate floor as the vote was being taken to repeal it, and shocked many of his colleagues and the nation. He sought recognition from the vote counters, turned his thumb down, and said “no.” There were gasps and some applause.

He had just derailed the fevered Republican effort to undo the Obama-era health care law.

It was a stunning moment that will be long remembered in the Senate, a flash of the maverick John McCain, unafraid of going his own way despite the pleas of his fellow Republicans. In teaming up with Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who had already opposed the bill, Mr. McCain made good on his earlier promise to help defeat the measure if it didn’t meet his personal test.

No amount of arm-twisting by his peers, Vice President Mike Pence or even President Trump could sway him from the decision that he had telegraphed to some Democrats and Republicans in the anxious buildup to the vote.

Ms. Collins said Mr. McCain told her that he felt compelled to “do the right thing.” It probably didn’t hurt that it was also a measure of cold revenge against Mr. Trump, a man who on the campaign trail in 2015 had mocked Mr. McCain’s ordeal as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. Mr. McCain made no mention of that, however, and instead used his time of maximum impact in the spotlight to say that the spectacular collapse of the health bill provided a chance for renewal, an opening to get the Senate out of its dysfunctional and partisan rut.

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“The vote last night presents the Senate with an opportunity to start fresh,” Mr. McCain said in a statement on Friday. “I encourage my colleagues on both sides of the aisle to trust each other, stop the political gamesmanship, and put the health care needs of the American people first. We can do this.”

His decision to reject the measure represented a remarkable turnaround from Tuesday. Mr. McCain, 80, whose brain cancer had been diagnosed just days earlier, arrived in the Senate to provide the vote Republicans needed to open debate on their jumbled efforts to find a legislative path to repeal the health care bill they had railed against for seven years. Mr. Trump praised Mr. McCain’s courage in returning to the capital.

Leading up to the vote, Mr. McCain, not untypically, had confounded both critics and admirers. His speech Tuesday had the potential to go down as a Senate classic, a call to restore the work-across-the-aisle traditions of the past.

“We’ve been spinning our wheels on too many important issues,” Mr. McCain scolded his colleagues. “We’re getting nothing done, my friends, we’re getting nothing done.”

Mr. McCain’s vote that day left Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, smiling as his sometime foe, sometime friend from Arizona helped rescue the Kentucky Republican’s reputation as a master strategist.

He provided the vote to move the Republican measure forward and seemed to work throughout the week with his constant ally, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, to explore ways to get the legislation out of the Senate and over to the House as Mr. McConnell so badly wanted.

A hastily scheduled Thursday evening news conference set off alarm bells among Democrats that Mr. McCain was going to back the last-ditch “skinny” repeal effort and sustain the drive to overturn the Affordable Care Act.

But he had also been working back channels with Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, about his intentions. A relieved Mr. Schumer praised Mr. McCain after the vote.

“John McCain is a hero and has courage and does the right thing,” Mr. Schumer told reporters. “He is a hero of mine.”

Mr. McConnell was no longer smiling.

“So yes, this is a disappointment,” the majority leader said in an emotional speech after the vote. “A disappointment indeed.”

Other Republicans, while crediting Mr. McCain with a flair for the dramatic, said it was Republican voters who would be left disappointed by Mr. McCain’s act.

“The losers tonight are the people who believed in the democratic process, believe that actually when candidates run and say, ‘I will fight to repeal Obamacare,’ that that actually means they will fight to repeal Obamacare,” said Senator Ted Cruz, the Texas Republican who has clashed with Mr. McCain in the past. Mr. McCain was re-elected last year after making the repeal and replacement of the health care law a central element of his campaign.

As a senator from a state with a large population of older Americans, Mr. McCain has long involved himself in health policy, although the fine points are far from his chief area of expertise, military affairs. In this health care fight, Mr. McCain’s resistance appeared to be driven partly by concerns raised by Gov. Doug Ducey of Arizona about the potential loss of coverage in the state.

After turning Washington upside down over the last few days, Mr. McCain planned to be in Arizona on Monday for what his office described as a “standard post-surgical regimen of targeted radiation and chemotherapy.” Mr. McCain intends to keep working but does not plan to be back on Capitol Hill before September.

The question now is whether Mr. McCain’s vote will produce the results he wants: a more bipartisan approach to making changes in the health law that both sides acknowledge are needed. Or will it simply produce a stalemate that leads to a failure of the current system and a chorus of “we told you so” from Republicans?

The president made clear his unhappiness and issued a warning of what would come, predicting the current system would implode.

But for now, it was Mr. McCain who had seized the moment and set the course of the Senate.

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President Trump gives Memorial Day Address at Arlington National Cemetery

Brooke Singman

President Trump visited Arlington National Cemetery on Monday to perform one of the most solemn duties as commander-in-chief—laying a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

The president gave his first Memorial Day address, after laying the wreath, like so many presidents before him, as part of the ceremony to remember, and honor, the men and women who died fighting for the United States of America.

“Thank you for joining us as we honor the brave warriors who gave their lives for ours–Spending their last moments on this earth in defense of this great country and its people,” Trump began. “We only hope that every day we can prove worthy, not only of their sacrifice and service, but of the sacrifice made by their families and loved ones they left behind—special, special people.”

Trump went on to honor Homeland Security Secretary Gen. John Kelly’s fallen son, Robert, and the Kelly family.

“I especially want to extend our gratitude to Gen. Kelly for joining us today—an incredible man—I always call him general,” Trump said. “He understands more than most ever could, or ever will, the wounds and burdens of war.”

Robert Kelly, 29, was killed in a roadside bomb blast in 2010 during a foot patrol in Afghanistan’s Helmand Province.

Trump added: “To the entire Kelly family, today, 300 million American hearts are joined together with you. We grieve with you. We honor you and we pledge to you that we will always remember Robert and what he did for us.”

Trump honored Gold Star families calling their fallen loved ones “angels sent to us by God,” in his first public address since returning from his first trip overseas as commander-in-chief.

“They all share one title in common—and that is the title of ‘hero’—real heroes,” Trump said. “Though they were only here for a brief time before God called them home, their legacy will endure forever.”

Trump went on to honor former Sen. Bob Dole and his wife, former Sen. Elizabeth Dole, and other Gold Star families and service men and women in the audience.

“While we cannot know the extent of your pain, what we do know is that our gratitude to them and to you is boundless and undying—will always be there, Thank you,” Trump said. “Their stories are now woven into the soul of our nation, into the stars and stripes on our flag, and into the beating hearts of our great, great people.”

Vice President Mike Pence attended the ceremony, along with Defense Secretary Gen. James Mattis, and Homeland Security Secretary Gen. John Kelly, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joseph Dunford.

Before the president began his remarks, Dunford thanked fallen military men and women who gave the ultimate sacrifice.

“They were people who stood for something larger than themselves, people who understood what we have in our country is worth fighting for,” Dunford said, introducing Defense Secretary James Mattis.

“To the families of the fallen both here, and at home, no words will ease your pain, but I bet you, let it have meaning –unite your sorrow with their awesome purpose,” Mattis said.

Trump finished his first Memorial Day address by honoring the “unknown soldiers” who have lost their lives in service.

“Today we also hold a special vigil for heroes whose stories we cannot tell, because their names are known to God alone–the unknown soldiers,” Trump said. “We do not know where they came from, who they left behind, or what they hoped to be, but we do know what they did. They fought and they died in the great and noble act of loyalty and love to their families and to our country.”

Brooke Singman is a Reporter for Fox News. Follow her on Twitter at @brookefoxnews.

Trump advisers had ‘sensitive’ contacts with Russian agents for months, Clapper testifies

Michael Isikoff

US likely weighing military options against North Korea, say experts

If tensions between the U.S. and North Korea reach the point where America uses its mighty air power against the rogue nation, it won’t be much of a battle, experts told Fox News.

In recent weeks, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has warned that all options “are on the table” should the communist dictatorship continue to threaten its neighbors and the U.S. Vice President Mike Pence echoed that sentiment, saying “North Korea would do well not to test [President Trump’s] resolve or the strength of the armed forces of the United States in this region.”

If that strength includes U.S. airpower, North Korea’s antiquated Korean People’s Army Air Force (KPAAF) wouldn’t be able to put up much of a fight.

According to a 2015 Pentagon report, “The North Korean Air Force (NKAF), a fleet of more than 1,300 aircraft that are primarily legacy Soviet models, is primarily responsible for defending North Korean air space.

“However,” the report continued, “because of the technological inferiority of most of its aircraft fleet and rigid air defense command and control structure, much of North Korea’s air defense is provided by surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and antiaircraft artillery (AAA).”

Still, the so-called Hermit Kingdom has some impressive defense capabilities, according to Col. David Maxwell, associate director of the Center for Security Studies and the Security Studies Program in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

“The one important capability that they have that is more important than their aircraft is their integrated air defense system.” Maxwell told Fox News. “These radars, missiles, and gun systems will have to be immediately suppressed and destroyed when hostilities begin. The air defenses are more of a threat than their Air Force.”

The Pentagon report states that North Korea’s military has not acquired new fighter aircraft “in decades” and states that their most capable combat aircraft were procured from the Soviet Union in the late 1980s.

Compounding matters, North Korean pilots are poorly trained. Some reports state they receive less than 20 hours of flight time per year, a small fraction of what a U.S. pilot would receive. A big reason for their lack of flight hours is sanctions on fuel imports into North Korea. Lack of fuel means a lack of flying hours.

Should the U.S. use airpower to attack, North Korea would most-likely attempt to engage them, Maxwell said. But there is a good chance every one of our pilots could “become an ace very quickly after hostilities begin,” Maxwell said.

 

North Korea threatens to strike US aircraft carrier to show ‘military’s force’

North Korea threatened Sunday to sink a U.S. aircraft carrier to demonstrate its military prowess as two Japanese Navy ships joined a U.S. strike group for exercises in the Philippine Sea.

“Our revolutionary forces are combat-ready to sink a U.S. nuclear powered aircraft carrier with a single strike,” according to North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party’s newspaper, the Rodong Sinmum.

The paper also likened the USS Carl Vinson to a “gross animal” and said a strike on the carrier would be “an actual example to show our military’s force.”

President Trump ordered the USS Carl Vinson to sail to waters off the Korean Peninsula in response to the rising tensions over Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile tests and threats to attack the U.S. and its allies. Vice President Pence said Saturday that group would arrive “within days.”

The Vinson and two other U.S. warships were joined by two Japanese destroyers as they continued their journey north in the western Pacific Ocean, the U.S. Navy said in a statement. The U.S. group also includes a guided-missile cruiser and a guided-missile destroyer.

The aircraft carrier had canceled a scheduled visit to Australia to divert toward North Korea in a show of force, though it still conducted a curtailed training exercise with Australia before doing so.

The Navy called the exercise “routine” and said it is designed to improve combined maritime response and defense capabilities, as well as joint maneuvering proficiency.

The Vinson group has conducted three previous bilateral exercises with the Japanese Navy since leaving San Diego on Jan. 5 for a western Pacific deployment. The most recent one was in March.

Analysts believe that North Korea could be gearing up for its sixth nuclear test in wake of a failed missile launch and ahead of the 85th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army, which takes place Tuesday.

North Korea conducted two of its five nuclear tests last year and is believed to be working to develop nuclear-tipped missiles that could reach the mainland U.S.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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